Northern and New (Central) California have very similar donation patterns. With California potentially breaking up into 3 different States, we looked at donation patterns to see how the political landscape might change. Since 2014, we found that in Northern California 65% of donations have gone to the Democrats, while only 35% have gone to the Republicans. This is actually higher than Central California or what will become just California. In “New” California, Democrats received 62% of donations, compared to 38% for the Republicans. However, Southern California is a very different story. Over the same time frame, Democrats only received 30% of donations in Southern California, compared to 70% for the Republicans.
We first thought that San Francisco was skewing the Northern numbers towards the Democrat’s side. So we stripped out San Francisco from the calculations and the percentages did not significantly change. In fact, without San Francisco the Republican share of donations did not even increase by 1%. To eliminate candidate popularity bias, we only used donations to the Democrat and Republican National Committees, Democrat / Republican Congressional Campaign Committees and the Democrat / Republican Senate Committees.
If we look at donations to Hillary Clinton, she raised a crazy $186 million in California. 50% of that came from the Northern State, 42% from Central California and only 8% from Southern California. ActBlue (a democrat donation vehicle) took in $108 million, $55 million from the North, $40 million from Central California and $13 million from Southern California.
So the Republican dream of 2 strong conservative States and 1 liberal State is not going to be as easy as they would like. It looks like Southern California will lean toward the Republican side. However, if money flow is any indication and it is then both New California and Northern California will lean to the Democrats.